A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
